The 21st century is facing triple crises and China is the common factor underlying all three.
The world is faced with triple crises—geopolitical power shifts, global health crisis and economic depression. China is the common factor underlying all three. These crises would collectively shape world politics, restructure global supply chains and bring an end to unregulated globalisation. The contours of the post-Wuhan world order are yet to take shape, but it is likely to be as divided and a bifurcated world as the post-World War II world was.
The Covid-19 has served to accelerate the breakdown of the post-World War II international order. We are entering Cold War 2.0 with eyes wide open, not sleep walking into it, as some would argue. The vast Indo-Pacific region from the Western Pacific to the Western Indian Ocean is now the “ground zero” of this new Cold War 2.0.
Every crisis has winners and losers. China certainly emerged as a winner from the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the 2008 global financial crisis. The world’s worst pandemic will also have winners and losers. There are two possible scenarios. Either China would emerge from the triple crises—power shifts, pandemic and economic recession—as a relatively more powerful country than others (e.g., the United States, Europe and India); or, China would emerge as a bruised and much weakened power in a post-Wuhan world that is multipolar but fragmented with a more regulated type of“guided globalisation”.
As for Beijing’s One Belt